Decision-making in uncertain times: Why speed becomes a competitive advantage

What does hesitation cost you? Make faster decisions - even with less information.

The world has become more complex: markets shift faster, technologies evolve rapidly, and predictability is declining. Terms like VUCA or BANI (as the next stage) describe exactly this environment: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.

For leaders and founders, this leads to a clear consequence:

Perfect decisions do not exist.

What matters today is the ability to remain actionable under uncertainty.

The 70% rule by Jeff Bezos offers a powerful approach:

“Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70 percent of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90 percent, in most cases, you’re probably being slow.” - Jeff Bezos (Amazon Shareholder Letter, 2016)

If you wait for 90%, you are usually too slow. And this is exactly where a competitive advantage emerges:

1. Speed beats perfection

While you are still analyzing, someone else is deciding and gaining market share.

The core mistake lies in assuming that more information automatically leads to better decisions. In reality, the opposite often happens:

With every additional layer of analysis, complexity increases and decisions are delayed.

What is often overlooked:

Hesitation comes at a cost:

• You miss market opportunities
• You delay your time-to-market
• You give competitors time to learn faster

This is where the real disadvantage emerges.

Studies by McKinsey show that companies with fast decision-making processes are significantly more successful. The reason is simple:

They enter the market earlier and learn faster than their competitors.

Not deciding is also a decision - with real costs.

2. The 70% rule - Decide with functional clarity

The biggest barrier to decision-making is the desire for certainty.

This is where the 70% rule comes in.

But:

The 70% rule does not mean acting without careful thought.

It means deciding with functional clarity.

That means:

• You understand the problem sufficiently
• You know the key variables
• You can define the next meaningful step

That is enough to start.

The remaining 20 - 30% of clarity costs valuable time but rarely creates decisive progress.

The quality of your decision does not come from maximum information - but from the next meaningful step.

3. One-Way vs. Two-Way Doors decisions

Not all decisions are equal. Distinguish between two types:

In business, many decisions are Two-way doors - but are treated like One-way doors.

This leads to unnecessary slowness.

4. Lean Startup - Learn through execution

The Lean Startup approach provides the operational framework:

Build - Measure - Learn

You develop an initial version (Minimum Viable Product), test it in the market, and gather direct feedback. Based on that, you make the next decision.

Eric Ries, the creator of the Lean Startup method, demonstrates:

Progress emerges through iteration.

This creates knowledge that pure analysis alone cannot deliver.

Every execution provides new data:

• What works?
• What is actually used?
• Where is value created?

These insights enable targeted improvements.

You reduce uncertainty through the next step.

This shifts the focus:

• from planning to execution
• from assumptions to real data
• from isolated decisions to continuous learning

5. The ability to course-correct determines success

The real success factor is the ability to course-correct.

Jeff Bezos adds:

“Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure.”

If you decide quickly, you must be able to correct wrong decisions quickly.

The quality of your decisions therefore depends not only on analysis—but on your ability to learn and adapt.

Fast decision-makers have a clear advantage:

• They recognize early what works and what doesn’t
• They adjust consistently

The difference lies in execution:

• They review results regularly
• They respond to feedback
• They make new decisions quickly

This creates a continuous learning process.

Slow decision-makers hold on to assumptions longer and react too late to new information. They lose valuable time.

Competitive advantage emerges from the speed of adaptation.

This changes the focus:

• from one-time decisions to continuous optimization
• from planning to execution
• from stability to dynamic responsiveness

The loop closes here:

Conclusion

These five principles form a system for faster and better decisions:

• You accept uncertainty as the normal state
• You decide with functional clarity
• You distinguish between reversible and irreversible decisions
• You rely on iteration
• You build strong course-correction capabilities

The result: higher speed with controlled risk.

Summary of tools

Sources

• Ries, E. (2017). The Lean Startup. Crown.
• Bezos, J. (2016). Amazon Shareholder Letter. https://de.scribd.com/document/344982413/Amazon-2016-Letter-to-Shareholders
• McKinsey & Company (2020). Decision making in the age of urgency. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/decision-making-in-the-age-of-urgency